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jefftyzzer
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2009 6:54 pm
Guest
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

Thanks,

--Jeff
Jake
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2009 7:18 pm
Guest
On Wed, 29 Jul 2009 11:54:58 -0700, jefftyzzer wrote:

Quote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what is
the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for the
prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words, are
there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

Thanks,

--Jeff

It depends on how the letters got put in the buckets. If, for example,
the letters were taken from a page in a book, then it's much more likely
that an E shows up than an X.
jefftyzzer
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2009 11:00 pm
Guest
On Jul 29, 2:57 pm, Robert Israel
<isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca> wrote:
Quote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

You didn't give us enough information.  How do you decide which letters
go into which buckets?  

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

If the contents of the buckets are independent, the 5000 doesn't matter.
If they are not independent, it may.  

For example, one possible model is:
For each bucket, and each letter A to Z, with some given probability p
you put that letter in the bucket.  However, with probability (1-p)^26
this will leave 0 letters in the bucket.  In that case you start again.
The result is that each bucket contains a given letter with probability
p/(1 - (1-p)^26).

Another possible model:
For bucket #1, do as in the previous example.  Then, given bucket #i,
for bucket #(i+1) take a copy of bucket #i, remove one letter at random
and, if bucket #i had fewer than 13 letters, replace it with two letters
randomly chosen from those that are not in bucket #i.  
--
Robert Israel              isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca
Department of Mathematics        http://www.math.ubc.ca/~israel
University of British Columbia            Vancouver, BC, Canada

Thanks for your reply, Professor.

Where I said "each letter may appear only once," I should have been
more clear and said "each letter may appear only once per bucket."

Also, let's indeed assume a uniform distribution--for our purposes
here,
"Z" is as likely as "E." So, among the 5000 buckets, each bucket
could
have A through Z, or anything in-between. In other words, letters go
into the buckets randomly.

The buckets are indeed independent of each other, so, from what you've
said,
the number of buckets is irrelevant.

-- Jeff
Mensanator
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2009 11:15 pm
Guest
On Jul 29, 6:00 pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
Quote:
On Jul 29, 2:57 pm, Robert Israel





isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca> wrote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

You didn't give us enough information.  How do you decide which letters
go into which buckets?  

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

If the contents of the buckets are independent, the 5000 doesn't matter..
If they are not independent, it may.  

For example, one possible model is:
For each bucket, and each letter A to Z, with some given probability p
you put that letter in the bucket.  However, with probability (1-p)^26
this will leave 0 letters in the bucket.  In that case you start again.
The result is that each bucket contains a given letter with probability
p/(1 - (1-p)^26).

Another possible model:
For bucket #1, do as in the previous example.  Then, given bucket #i,
for bucket #(i+1) take a copy of bucket #i, remove one letter at random
and, if bucket #i had fewer than 13 letters, replace it with two letters
randomly chosen from those that are not in bucket #i.  
--
Robert Israel              isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca
Department of Mathematics        http://www.math.ubc.ca/~israel
University of British Columbia            Vancouver, BC, Canada

Thanks for your reply, Professor.

Where I said "each letter may appear only once," I should have been
more clear and said "each letter may appear only once per bucket."

Also, let's indeed assume a uniform distribution--for our purposes
here,
"Z" is as likely as "E." So, among the 5000 buckets, each bucket
could
have A through Z, or anything in-between. In other words, letters go
into the buckets randomly.

The buckets are indeed independent of each other, so, from what you've
said,
the number of buckets is irrelevant.

OTOH, only 2500 buckets have an A. And 2500 buckets have a B.
But not likely the same buckets, only 1250 will have AB. And only
625 will have ABC, only 312 will have ABCD, etc.

Will any of the 5000 have ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ?

Quote:

-- Jeff
jefftyzzer
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 12:25 am
Guest
On Jul 29, 4:15 pm, Mensanator <mensana...@aol.com> wrote:
Quote:
On Jul 29, 6:00 pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:



On Jul 29, 2:57 pm, Robert Israel

isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca> wrote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

You didn't give us enough information.  How do you decide which letters
go into which buckets?  

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

If the contents of the buckets are independent, the 5000 doesn't matter.
If they are not independent, it may.  

For example, one possible model is:
For each bucket, and each letter A to Z, with some given probability p
you put that letter in the bucket.  However, with probability (1-p)^26
this will leave 0 letters in the bucket.  In that case you start again.
The result is that each bucket contains a given letter with probability
p/(1 - (1-p)^26).

Another possible model:
For bucket #1, do as in the previous example.  Then, given bucket #i,
for bucket #(i+1) take a copy of bucket #i, remove one letter at random
and, if bucket #i had fewer than 13 letters, replace it with two letters
randomly chosen from those that are not in bucket #i.  
--
Robert Israel              isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca
Department of Mathematics        http://www.math.ubc.ca/~israel
University of British Columbia            Vancouver, BC, Canada

Thanks for your reply, Professor.

Where I said "each letter may appear only once," I should have been
more clear and said "each letter may appear only once per bucket."

Also, let's indeed assume a uniform distribution--for our purposes
here,
"Z" is as likely as "E." So, among the 5000 buckets, each bucket
could
have A through Z, or anything in-between. In other words, letters go
into the buckets randomly.

The buckets are indeed independent of each other, so, from what you've
said,
the number of buckets is irrelevant.

OTOH, only 2500 buckets have an A. And 2500 buckets have a B.
But not likely the same buckets, only 1250 will have AB. And only
625 will have ABC, only 312 will have ABCD, etc.

Will any of the 5000 have ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ?



-- Jeff



Realistically, no--no bucket will have all 26 letters. But to keep it
simple, let's say it's *possible*.
Jake
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:04 am
Guest
On Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:18:41 +0000, Jake wrote:

Quote:
On Wed, 29 Jul 2009 11:54:58 -0700, jefftyzzer wrote:

(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

Thanks,

--Jeff

It depends on how the letters got put in the buckets. If, for example,
the letters were taken from a page in a book, then it's much more likely
that an E shows up than an X.

Oops, I misread the question. I thought only one letter could go in each
bucket--which is why 1/26 would make sense. But we still need to
understand how the letters are being put into the bucket. I guess the
most natural way would be, for each letter and each bucket, to flip a
coin to say whether that letter goes in that bucket. Then obviously the
probably that a given letter is in a given bucket is 1/2.
Mensanator
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:19 am
Guest
On Jul 29, 7:25 pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
Quote:
On Jul 29, 4:15 pm, Mensanator <mensana...@aol.com> wrote:





On Jul 29, 6:00 pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

On Jul 29, 2:57 pm, Robert Israel

isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca> wrote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

You didn't give us enough information.  How do you decide which letters
go into which buckets?  

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

If the contents of the buckets are independent, the 5000 doesn't matter.
If they are not independent, it may.  

For example, one possible model is:
For each bucket, and each letter A to Z, with some given probability p
you put that letter in the bucket.  However, with probability (1-p)^26
this will leave 0 letters in the bucket.  In that case you start again.
The result is that each bucket contains a given letter with probability
p/(1 - (1-p)^26).

Another possible model:
For bucket #1, do as in the previous example.  Then, given bucket #i,
for bucket #(i+1) take a copy of bucket #i, remove one letter at random
and, if bucket #i had fewer than 13 letters, replace it with two letters
randomly chosen from those that are not in bucket #i.  
--
Robert Israel              isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca
Department of Mathematics        http://www.math.ubc.ca/~israel
University of British Columbia            Vancouver, BC, Canada

Thanks for your reply, Professor.

Where I said "each letter may appear only once," I should have been
more clear and said "each letter may appear only once per bucket."

Also, let's indeed assume a uniform distribution--for our purposes
here,
"Z" is as likely as "E." So, among the 5000 buckets, each bucket
could
have A through Z, or anything in-between. In other words, letters go
into the buckets randomly.

The buckets are indeed independent of each other, so, from what you've
said,
the number of buckets is irrelevant.

OTOH, only 2500 buckets have an A. And 2500 buckets have a B.
But not likely the same buckets, only 1250 will have AB. And only
625 will have ABC, only 312 will have ABCD, etc.

Will any of the 5000 have ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ?

-- Jeff

Realistically, no--no bucket will have all 26 letters.

That's where the number of buckets matters. The more buckets you have,
the more likely some bucket will have all 26 letters.

Quote:
But to keep it
simple, let's say it's *possible*.

Sure, even with a single bucket, it's always possible.
Although you wouldn't want to bet 5000, there is some
number of buckets that you would bet on.
jefftyzzer
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:47 am
Guest
On Jul 29, 6:19 pm, Mensanator <mensana...@aol.com> wrote:
Quote:
On Jul 29, 7:25 pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:



On Jul 29, 4:15 pm, Mensanator <mensana...@aol.com> wrote:

On Jul 29, 6:00 pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

On Jul 29, 2:57 pm, Robert Israel

isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca> wrote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

You didn't give us enough information.  How do you decide which letters
go into which buckets?  

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

If the contents of the buckets are independent, the 5000 doesn't matter.
If they are not independent, it may.  

For example, one possible model is:
For each bucket, and each letter A to Z, with some given probability p
you put that letter in the bucket.  However, with probability (1-p)^26
this will leave 0 letters in the bucket.  In that case you start again.
The result is that each bucket contains a given letter with probability
p/(1 - (1-p)^26).

Another possible model:
For bucket #1, do as in the previous example.  Then, given bucket #i,
for bucket #(i+1) take a copy of bucket #i, remove one letter at random
and, if bucket #i had fewer than 13 letters, replace it with two letters
randomly chosen from those that are not in bucket #i.  
--
Robert Israel              isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca
Department of Mathematics        http://www.math.ubc.ca/~israel
University of British Columbia            Vancouver, BC, Canada

Thanks for your reply, Professor.

Where I said "each letter may appear only once," I should have been
more clear and said "each letter may appear only once per bucket."

Also, let's indeed assume a uniform distribution--for our purposes
here,
"Z" is as likely as "E." So, among the 5000 buckets, each bucket
could
have A through Z, or anything in-between. In other words, letters go
into the buckets randomly.

The buckets are indeed independent of each other, so, from what you've
said,
the number of buckets is irrelevant.

OTOH, only 2500 buckets have an A. And 2500 buckets have a B.
But not likely the same buckets, only 1250 will have AB. And only
625 will have ABC, only 312 will have ABCD, etc.

Will any of the 5000 have ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ?

-- Jeff

Realistically, no--no bucket will have all 26 letters.

That's where the number of buckets matters. The more buckets you have,
the more likely some bucket will have all 26 letters.

But to keep it
simple, let's say it's *possible*.

Sure, even with a single bucket, it's always possible.
Although you wouldn't want to bet 5000, there is some
number of buckets that you would bet on.

Maybe another formulation of the problem will help (your patience is
appreciated--probability is obviously not my core competency):

50 shoppers are in a supermarket that has an unlimited supply of
exactly 10 (different) products. All products are equally popular/
necessary, i.e., each product is as likely to be interesting to one
shopper as the next. What's the equation that expresses the
probability that if I check person X's basket, I'll find product Y?

--Jeff
Chip Eastham
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:57 am
Guest
On Jul 29, 9:47 pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
Quote:
On Jul 29, 6:19 pm, Mensanator <mensana...@aol.com> wrote:



On Jul 29, 7:25 pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

On Jul 29, 4:15 pm, Mensanator <mensana...@aol.com> wrote:

On Jul 29, 6:00 pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

On Jul 29, 2:57 pm, Robert Israel

isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca> wrote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

You didn't give us enough information.  How do you decide which letters
go into which buckets?  

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

If the contents of the buckets are independent, the 5000 doesn't matter.
If they are not independent, it may.  

For example, one possible model is:
For each bucket, and each letter A to Z, with some given probability p
you put that letter in the bucket.  However, with probability (1-p)^26
this will leave 0 letters in the bucket.  In that case you start again.
The result is that each bucket contains a given letter with probability
p/(1 - (1-p)^26).

Another possible model:
For bucket #1, do as in the previous example.  Then, given bucket #i,
for bucket #(i+1) take a copy of bucket #i, remove one letter at random
and, if bucket #i had fewer than 13 letters, replace it with two letters
randomly chosen from those that are not in bucket #i.  
--
Robert Israel              isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca
Department of Mathematics        http://www.math.ubc.ca/~israel
University of British Columbia            Vancouver, BC, Canada

Thanks for your reply, Professor.

Where I said "each letter may appear only once," I should have been
more clear and said "each letter may appear only once per bucket."

Also, let's indeed assume a uniform distribution--for our purposes
here,
"Z" is as likely as "E." So, among the 5000 buckets, each bucket
could
have A through Z, or anything in-between. In other words, letters go
into the buckets randomly.

The buckets are indeed independent of each other, so, from what you've
said,
the number of buckets is irrelevant.

OTOH, only 2500 buckets have an A. And 2500 buckets have a B.
But not likely the same buckets, only 1250 will have AB. And only
625 will have ABC, only 312 will have ABCD, etc.

Will any of the 5000 have ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ?

-- Jeff

Realistically, no--no bucket will have all 26 letters.

That's where the number of buckets matters. The more buckets you have,
the more likely some bucket will have all 26 letters.

But to keep it
simple, let's say it's *possible*.

Sure, even with a single bucket, it's always possible.
Although you wouldn't want to bet 5000, there is some
number of buckets that you would bet on.

Maybe another formulation of the problem will help (your patience is
appreciated--probability is obviously not my core competency):

50 shoppers are in a supermarket that has an unlimited supply of
exactly 10 (different) products. All products are equally popular/
necessary, i.e., each product is as likely to be interesting to one
shopper as the next. What's the equation that expresses the
probability that if I check person X's basket, I'll find product Y?

--Jeff

Nothing you've said determines what the
probability is that person X will have
placed product Y in their basket. You've
merely specficied that the probability of
that is the same as for any one of the 50
shoppers to have any particular one of the
10 products in their basket.

Let's call that probability p. It can be
anything between 0 and 1, for all the
information that you've given us.

regards, chip
Robert Israel
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:57 am
Guest
Quote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

You didn't give us enough information. How do you decide which letters
go into which buckets?

Quote:
It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

If the contents of the buckets are independent, the 5000 doesn't matter.
If they are not independent, it may.

For example, one possible model is:
For each bucket, and each letter A to Z, with some given probability p
you put that letter in the bucket. However, with probability (1-p)^26
this will leave 0 letters in the bucket. In that case you start again.
The result is that each bucket contains a given letter with probability
p/(1 - (1-p)^26).

Another possible model:
For bucket #1, do as in the previous example. Then, given bucket #i,
for bucket #(i+1) take a copy of bucket #i, remove one letter at random
and, if bucket #i had fewer than 13 letters, replace it with two letters
randomly chosen from those that are not in bucket #i.
--
Robert Israel israel@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca
Department of Mathematics http://www.math.ubc.ca/~israel
University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC, Canada
Ray Vickson
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:48 am
Guest
On Jul 29, 4:00 pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
Quote:
On Jul 29, 2:57 pm, Robert Israel



isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca> wrote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

You didn't give us enough information.  How do you decide which letters
go into which buckets?  

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

If the contents of the buckets are independent, the 5000 doesn't matter..
If they are not independent, it may.  

For example, one possible model is:
For each bucket, and each letter A to Z, with some given probability p
you put that letter in the bucket.  However, with probability (1-p)^26
this will leave 0 letters in the bucket.  In that case you start again.
The result is that each bucket contains a given letter with probability
p/(1 - (1-p)^26).

Another possible model:
For bucket #1, do as in the previous example.  Then, given bucket #i,
for bucket #(i+1) take a copy of bucket #i, remove one letter at random
and, if bucket #i had fewer than 13 letters, replace it with two letters
randomly chosen from those that are not in bucket #i.  
--
Robert Israel              isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca
Department of Mathematics        http://www.math.ubc.ca/~israel
University of British Columbia            Vancouver, BC, Canada

Thanks for your reply, Professor.

Where I said "each letter may appear only once," I should have been
more clear and said "each letter may appear only once per bucket."

Also, let's indeed assume a uniform distribution--for our purposes
here,
"Z" is as likely as "E." So, among the 5000 buckets, each bucket
could
have A through Z, or anything in-between. In other words, letters go
into the buckets randomly.

The buckets are indeed independent of each other, so, from what you've
said,
the number of buckets is irrelevant.

-- Jeff

You said that each bucket contains between 1 and 26 letters, but you
don't say what the probability distribution is of the number of
letters in a bucket. One way to load a bucket is: (1) Pick a letter at
random from the alphabet, and put it into the bucket (each letter has
chance 1/26 of being picked); remove that letter from stock of
available letters. (2) Spin a roulette wheel, with success probability
p. If you get a 'success', pick another letter randomly from the stock
of letters, put that letter into the bucket and remove it from the
stock of letters. If you do not get a 'success' stop: no more letters
are to be added. (3) If you did not stop in Step (2), repeat that step
(using a smaller stock of letters each time). Continue until you
either 'stop' at some stage or until the stock of letters is empty.

Of course, there are many other ways of actualizing your description
of having from 1 to 26 letters per bucket. However, for the scheme I
outlined above, let's compute the probability that a letter, say 'A',
falls into a particular bucket, say bucket 1. P{A present} = sum
{n=1..26} P{A present| n picks}*P{n picks}. For n = 1, 2, ..., 25, P{n
picks} = p^(n-1)*(1-p), while P{26 picks} = p^25. Now, P{A present|n
picks} = probability that A occurs when we pick n letters without
replacement. There are several ways to compute this, but let's just
consider a direct counting method. There are a total of 26!
permutations of the 26 letters; we just look at the first n positions
and ask: in how many permutations does the letter A occur in locations
1,2,...,n? A is in location 1 in 25! permutations, is in position 2 in
25! permutations, in position 3 in 25! permutations, etc. Altogether,
the number of distinct permutations having A in position 1--n is 25!
*n. Therefore, P{A|n} = n*25!/26! = n/26. Thus, P{A} = sum_{n=1..25}
(n/26)*p^(n-1)*(1-p) + (1-p^25) (because P{A|n=26} = 1). Thus, P{A} p^25 + [1 + 25*p^26 - 26*p^25]/[26*(1-p)]. Here is a little table of
the results:
p P{A}
0.10 0.0427
0.20 0.0481
0.30 0.0549
0.40 0.0641
0.50 0.0769
0.60 0.0962
0.70 0.1282
0.80 0.1917
0.90 0.3598

Note that the result can vary a lot, and is not just equal to 1/26.

R.G. Vickson
Ray Vickson
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 4:04 am
Guest
On Jul 29, 11:54 am, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
Quote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

Thanks,

--Jeff

You said that each bucket contains between 1 and 26 letters, but you
don't say what the probability distribution is of the number of
letters in a bucket. One way to load a bucket is: (1) Pick a letter at
random from the alphabet, and put it into the bucket (each letter has
chance 1/26 of being picked); remove that letter from stock of
available letters. (2) Spin a roulette wheel, with success probability
p. If you get a 'success', pick another letter randomly from the stock
of letters, put that letter into the bucket and then remove it from
the stock of letters. If you do not get a 'success' stop: no more
letters are to be added. (3) If you did not stop in Step (2), repeat
that step (using a smaller stock of letters each time). Continue until
you either 'stop' at some stage or until the stock of letters is
empty.
Of course, there are many other ways of actualizing your description
of having from 1 to 26 letters per bucket. However, for the scheme I
outlined above, let's compute the probability that a letter, say 'A',
falls into a particular bucket, say bucket 1. P{A present} = sum
{n=1..26} P{A present| n picks}*P{n picks}. For n = 1, 2, ..., 25, P{n
picks} = p^(n-1)*(1-p), while P{26 picks} = p^25. Now, P{A present|n
picks} = probability that A occurs when we pick n letters without
replacement. There are several ways to compute this, but let's just
consider a direct counting method. There are a total of 26! distinct
permutations of the 26 letters; we just look at the first n positions
and ask: in how many permutations does the letter A occur in
locations
1,2,...,n? A is in location 1 in 25! permutations, is in position 2 in
25! permutations, in position 3 in 25! permutations, etc. Altogether,
the number of distinct permutations having A in position 1--n is
n*25!. Therefore, P{A|n} = n*25!/26! = n/26. Thus, P{A} = sum_
{n=1..25} (n/26)*p^(n-1)*(1-p) + p^25 (because P{A|n=26} = 1). Thus,
P{A} = p^25 + [1 + 25*p^26 - 26*p^25]/[26*(1-p)].
Here is a little table of the results:
p P{A}
0.10 0.0427
0.20 0.0481
0.30 0.0549
0.40 0.0641
0.50 0.0769
0.60 0.0962
0.70 0.1282
0.80 0.1917
0.90 0.3598

Note that the result can vary a lot, and is not just equal to 1/26.

R.G. Vickson
Mensanator
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 6:25 am
Guest
On Jul 29, 8:47�pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
Quote:
On Jul 29, 6:19�pm, Mensanator <mensana...@aol.com> wrote:





On Jul 29, 7:25�pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

On Jul 29, 4:15�pm, Mensanator <mensana...@aol.com> wrote:

On Jul 29, 6:00�pm, jefftyzzer <jefftyz...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

On Jul 29, 2:57�pm, Robert Israel

isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca> wrote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related, I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a given bucket?

You didn't give us enough information. �How do you decide which letters
go into which buckets? �

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

If the contents of the buckets are independent, the 5000 doesn't matter.
If they are not independent, it may. �

For example, one possible model is:
For each bucket, and each letter A to Z, with some given probability p
you put that letter in the bucket. �However, with probability (1-p)^26
this will leave 0 letters in the bucket. �In that case you start again.
The result is that each bucket contains a given letter with probability
p/(1 - (1-p)^26).

Another possible model:
For bucket #1, do as in the previous example. �Then, given bucket #i,
for bucket #(i+1) take a copy of bucket #i, remove one letter at random
and, if bucket #i had fewer than 13 letters, replace it with two letters
randomly chosen from those that are not in bucket #i. �
--
Robert Israel � � � � � � �isr...@math.MyUniversitysInitials.ca
Department of Mathematics � � � �http://www.math.ubc.ca/~israel
University of British Columbia � � � � � �Vancouver, BC, Canada

Thanks for your reply, Professor.

Where I said "each letter may appear only once," I should have been
more clear and said "each letter may appear only once per bucket."

Also, let's indeed assume a uniform distribution--for our purposes
here,
"Z" is as likely as "E." So, among the 5000 buckets, each bucket
could
have A through Z, or anything in-between. In other words, letters go
into the buckets randomly.

The buckets are indeed independent of each other, so, from what you've
said,
the number of buckets is irrelevant.

OTOH, only 2500 buckets have an A. And 2500 buckets have a B.
But not likely the same buckets, only 1250 will have AB. And only
625 will have ABC, only 312 will have ABCD, etc.

Will any of the 5000 have ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ?

-- Jeff

Realistically, no--no bucket will have all 26 letters.

That's where the number of buckets matters. The more buckets you have,
the more likely some bucket will have all 26 letters.

But to keep it
simple, let's say it's *possible*.

Sure, even with a single bucket, it's always possible.
Although you wouldn't want to bet 5000, there is some
number of buckets that you would bet on.

Maybe another formulation of the problem will help (your patience is
appreciated--probability is obviously not my core competency):

50 shoppers are in a supermarket that has an unlimited supply of
exactly 10 (different) products. All products are equally popular/
necessary, i.e., each product is as likely to be interesting to one
shopper as the next. What's the equation that expresses the
probability that if I check person X's basket, I'll find product Y?

Probability is simply 1/10, number of shoppers is not
relevant.

Of course, I'm assuming only one item in the cart.
What if you could have two? There are 100 ways you
can make two-digit numbers.

But wait...when you get to the checkout counter,
does it make any difference whether you scan 12
or 21? When doing probability, it's always the
number of successes divided by the total possible
outcomes. So, if you want the probability of your
two-digit number contains both 1 & 2, there are
two possible sucessful outcomes (12 & 21) divided
by the 100 total possible outcomes, or 1/50.

When making words in English, order matters. That's
called Permutations. When scanning items at a supermarket,
order does not matter. That's called Combinations.
These subtleties affect probability calculations.

Furthermore, suppose the cost of each item was the
same as it's index number (item 1 is $1, item 2 is
$2, etc.). Two copies of item 2 cost $4, but so does
item 1 paired with item 3. There are 100 different
pairings, but some costs occur more often than others,
and you can predict the likelyhood that shopper X spends
Y dollars.

Quote:

--Jeff
Torsten Hennig
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 7:10 am
Guest
Quote:
(Note: cross-posted in alt.sci.math.probability)

Friends,

First, I want to assure you that this isn't a
homework problem (I only
wish it were). While this is definitely work-related,
I've made it
generic by analogizing the problem by referring to
buckets and letters
(I don't do much work with buckets Wink.

Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each
bucket can contain
between 1 and 26 of the letters A-Z (but each letter
only once), what
is the probability that any given letter will be in a
given bucket?

It seems like the answer is simply 1/26, but I'm
wondering if the fact
that I have a known quantity of buckets changes
things, likewise for
the prohibition that each letter may appear only
once. In other words,
are there some nuances I'm ignorant of that make this
problem more
challenging that it first appears to be?

Thanks,

--Jeff

If we can assume that each subset with at least one
element of the 26 letters is equally likely to be found
in a basket and the contents of the baskets are independent, then the probability that a given letter is contained in a given basket is

p = 1 - (2^25-1)/(2^26-1)

Best wishes
Torsten.
riderofgiraffes
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 8:11 am
Guest
Quote:
Question: If I have, say, 5,000 buckets, and each
bucket can contain between 1 and 26 of the letters
A-Z (but each letter only once), what is the
probability that any given letter will be in a
given bucket?

In this (and subsequent) posting you are not telling us
enough information to work out what's going on. How do
the letters get in the buckets?

For example, I might go down the line, and for each
bucket and for each letter I toss a coin. Heads, the
letter goes in. Then the probability that any given
letter will be in a given bucket is 50%.

Or I might go down the line, and for each bucket toss
in one letter chosen uniformly at random. Now the
probability that any given letter will be in a given
bucket is 1/26.

Or I might bunk off and have a coffee and read the paper.
Now it's 0%.

Or I might be ticked off and put every letter in every
bucket.

Do you see what I mean? The detail matters.

It sounds to me like you're doing some highly secret
market research, or something similar, and are unwilling
to tell us what you're actually doing. But by abstracting
the problem as you are, you're removing the information
we need. You admit to not knowing about probability, so
you don't know what's important, and are throwing it
away.

The Monty Hall problem demonstrates clearly that there
can be subtle nuances that are unwittingly destroyed,
changing the problem entirely.

Be careful. Tell us what you're really doing, or the
risk is that you'll get an answer that's dangerously
wrong.
 
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